The Bitcoin Vote: Decoding U.S. Election Candidates' Crypto Agendas
Trump: Bold and bullish statements that have captured attention. While some are impactful and others less so, all contribute to tying speculators’ views of Bitcoin’s price closely to Trump’s odds of winning.
Harris: Mostly “in talks” with no concrete statements. Her position on crypto remains unclear, relying on secondary sources and speculation.
RFK: Clear and informed stance on crypto. However, his messages are likely overshadowed by his opponents.
What’s next?: The US election in November is worth paying attention to as the candidates are vying for the crypto vote and will likely influence Bitcoin’s price, regulations, and philosophy.
“Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin. Sooo many Bitcoins.”
Can you imagine Trump’s voice booming? After calling Bitcoin a “scam” and being a crypto skeptic during his presidency, the 2024 US election candidate has reversed his anti-crypto stance.
Not only that, Bitcoin has become a hot topic for all the candidates, who are rushing to gain crypto’s support before the election in November.
From Trump speaking at the inaugural Bitcoin Conference in Nashville to Harris being in talks with Coinbase, the candidates are laying out their plans for crypto regulation and innovation.
But what have they actually said about crypto? Is their support just classic political lip service, or do their plans have substance?
Let’s go through their statements and find out.
Read on to discover:
Statements on crypto made by Trump, Harris, and RFK
A table of their positions on key crypto issues (e.g., CBDC and strategic reserves)
What’s next for crypto, regardless of who gets elected?
I. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve for the US
July 29, 2024 — Trump plans to “keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future” to “serve, in effect, as the core of the strategic national bitcoin stockpile.”
Source: Cointelegraph
Similarly, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) has announced plans to accumulate a reserve of four million bitcoins by buying 550 bitcoins daily. He also proposed to put the “US budget on blockchain”.
Source: Bitcoin Magazine
II. Global Perspective: How Governments Handle Bitcoin
Across the globe, governments have accumulated Bitcoins either through the confiscation of assets or by actively buying Bitcoins as part of their reserves.
Germany decided to sell all their Bitcoins in July 2024, injecting $3 billion worth of Bitcoin into the market. The UK seized 61,000 bitcoins in 2021 and have not moved them since. Pro-crypto governments like El Salvador have accumulated more than 5,800 bitcoins as part of their treasury and are buying more.
What about the US?
Currently, the US holds over 200,000 BTC in its treasury. This is about 1% of the total supply of Bitcoin. These holdings can be repurposed into a treasury, much like in El Salvador.
This means that:
The US would not be selling their Bitcoins shortly, which means this will not trigger an increase in the supply of Bitcoin. Unlike the situation with Germany, the price of Bitcoin could stay stable.
As they buy more bitcoin, the demand increases, potentially driving up the price of Bitcoin.
We will discuss the broader implications of the US taking a pro-crypto stance towards the end.
III. Other Topics Mentioned by Trump
These are the topics covered during his speech at Bitcoin 2024:
CBDC: “There will never be a CBDC while I'm president of the United States.”
SEC: “On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler.”
Stablecoins: “As part of our effort to provide regulatory clarity, we will create a framework to enable the safe, responsible expansion of stablecoins.”
Mining: “America will become the world's undisputed Bitcoin mining powerhouse.”
It seems like someone on Trump’s team did their homework. These statements are strategic and address the industry's pain points. By mentioning firing Gary Gensler as SEC chair, Trump fired up the crowds in Nashville, as this could mean less strict regulations for the industry. Seeing the crowd’s support for this move, Trump doubled down on his statement and reiterated his plan.
However, when it came to the topic of stablecoins, Trump stumbled. “You know what a stablecoin is? Does anybody know? Please raise your hand.” This leaves room to question if he truly understands crypto.
Read the entire transcript of Trump’s speech here: CoinDesk
IV. Other Topics Mentioned by RFK
Regarding these topics, here is what RFK has to say:
CBDC: “As president, I will end the efforts to move toward a CBDC.” (Jan 24, 2024)
SEC: “End that hostility toward cryptocurrencies from the Federal Reserve and regulators.” (May 31, 2024)
Mining: “Bitcoin mining is also the ideal partner for renewable energy.” (July 27, 2024)
Despite having a good understanding and clear stance on crypto, RFK has not been making headlines and is likely overshadowed by his opponents.
V. What is Harris’ Stance on Crypto?
So far, it remains unclear.
July 24, 2024 — Her office called Mark Cuban to discuss crypto.
Aug 1, 2024 — She was rumored to be in talks with major crypto players such as Ripple, Coinbase, and Circle.
What stands out is that Harris has not personally expressed any opinions on crypto. The words attributed to her are only rumors and statements from her office, not her own.
According to Standwithcrypto, she has not made any notable statements on crypto.
Source: StandWithCrypto
Neither she nor her office has made any statements on CBDC, Bitcoin reserves, or other government-related crypto issues.
On one hand, she is avoiding overpromising and is making careful strides in crypto. On the other, her unclear stance is not bullish for the industry, especially when her odds of winning appear to be increasing.
VI. Why Do Candidates Care About the Crypto Vote?
Interest by voters in swing states
In a poll in May 2024, more than 20% of voters in swing states identify crypto as a concern in the upcoming election. This highlights the importance of crypto in this election cycle, potentially explaining why it has become such a contentious topic.
Monetary backing from crypto industry leaders
In the second quarter of 2024, Trump’s campaign reportedly raised $3 million in cryptocurrency, with significant backing from the Winklevoss twins. Additionally, Trump has capitalized on his brand through NFT collections.
Meanwhile, RFK has made it clear that his crypto campaign is deeply personal—he has openly disclosed that a majority of his wealth is in Bitcoin. Supporting the crypto industry aligns directly with his financial interests, as any growth in the sector benefits his holdings/crypto bags.
VII. What Does the Future Hold?
Keeping an eye on the November elections
Whoever is in favor of crypto will have a significant short-term influence on the price of crypto. During their presidential term, they will be shaping the U.S. crypto frameworks and regulations. We'll have to wait and see if their actions align with their pre-election promises. Even if no clear regulations are established, the industry might remain stagnant due to the lack of clarity.
It is advisable to keep an eye on the candidates’ stances and their odds of winning as we approach the November elections. You can track market sentiment to some degree on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/elections.
Other countries might follow suit
If any of the candidates were to follow through on their promises regarding Bitcoin, it could set a precedent that other nations might consider emulating.
Countries have been accelerating their crypto activities over the last month. India is drafting a crypto bill, Russia legalized Bitcoin and crypto mining, and China is rumored to be “unbanning” crypto.
Most governments lack clear direction regarding regulatory policies and are likely to look to major economic players like the U.S. to set an example. If countries were to follow suit and implement strategic Bitcoin reserves, it could reshape the Bitcoin narrative, control, and mainstream adoption.
Changes in the fundamental philosophy of Bitcoin and crypto
As Bitcoin garners attention from central authorities, it is essential to consider whether this trajectory deviates from Bitcoin's core principle as a peer-to-peer system.
Could the accumulation of Bitcoin by centralized entities shift the dynamics of the decentralized vision that originally drove its creation? Or does this mark the beginning of a new era for Bitcoin, where its integration into established financial systems enhances its utility and value?
The answers to these questions will shape the future of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency landscape.
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Further Readings
Open letter to Harris to support the US crypto industry: https://x.com/DigitalChamber/status/1815389800364450296
Explore the relationship between SEC & crypto here: https://koinly.io/blog/sec-crypto/
Crypto and the election, a survey by Grayscale and the Harris Poll: https://www.grayscale.com/globalassets/harris-poll/grayscale---harris-poll-results---phase-1.pdf
Analysis of how crypto affects the election, even before Trump’s speech: https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/crypto-voters-are-already-affecting-the-2024-presidential-election/
US’s Technical Evaluation for a CBDC from September 2022: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/09-2022-Technical-Evaluation-US-CBDC-System.pdf
Stand with Crypto — An overview of US politicians’ stance on crypto: https://www.standwithcrypto.org/
Bitcoin voter checklist: https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1819436808880771463
